Enhancing hydro-epidemiological modelling of nearshore coastal waters with source-receptor connectivity study

Abstract

Faecal Indicator Organism (FIO) concentrations in nearshore coastal waters may lead to significant public health concerns and economic loss. A three-dimensional numerical source-receptor connectivity study was conducted to improve the modelling of FIO transport and decay processes and identify major FIO sources impacting sensitive receptors (source apportionment). The study site was Swansea Bay, UK and the effects of wind, density, and tracer microbe (surrogate FIO) decay models were investigated by comparing the model simulations to microbial tracer field studies. The relevance of connectivity tests to source apportionment was demonstrated by hindcasting FIO concentration in Swansea Bay with the identified FIO source and the Impulse Response Function (IRF) in Control System theory. This is the first time the IRF approach has been applied for FIO modelling in bathing waters. Results show the importance of density, widely ignored in fully mixed water bodies, and the potential for biphasic decay models to improve prediction accuracy. The microbe-carrying riverine freshwater, having a smaller hydrostatic pressure, could not intrude on the heavier seawater and remained in the nearshore areas. The freshwater and the associated tracer microbes then travelled along the shoreline and reached bathing water sites. This effect cannot be faithfully modelled without the inclusion of the density effect. Biphasic decay models improved the agreement between measured and modelled microbe concentrations. The IRF hindcasted and measured FIO concentrations for Swansea Bay agreed reasonably, demonstrating the importance of connectivity tests in identifying key FIO sources. The findings of this study, namely enhancing hydro-epidemiological modelling and highlighting the effectiveness of connectivity studies in identifying key FIO sources, directly benefit hydraulics and water quality modellers, regulatory authorities, water resource managers and policy.

Keywords: Faecal indicator organisms; Impulse response function; Microbe decay models; Source-receptor connectivity; Swansea bay; Water quality modelling.