Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050

Wenyin Wu; Zanhui Huang; Zhongyi Sun; Jie Zhang; Shisheng Wang; Mengyang Fang; Huai Yang; Hua Lu; Guoling Guo; Wenjie Liu

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170348

Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Mar 20:917:170348. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170348. Epub 2024 Jan 26.

Authors

Wenyin Wu¹, Zanhui Huang², Zhongyi Sun³, Jie Zhang⁴, Shisheng Wang⁵, Mengyang Fang⁶, Huai Yang⁷, Hua Lu⁸, Guoling Guo⁹, Wenjie Liu¹⁰

Affiliations

¹ Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, School of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, PR China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, PR China. Electronic address: wuwenyin2020123@163.com.
² Haikou Marine Geological Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Haikou 571127, PR China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, PR China. Electronic address: huangzanhui@mail.cgs.gov.cn.
³ Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, School of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, PR China. Electronic address: gis.rs@hainanu.edu.cn.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, School of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, PR China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, PR China. Electronic address: zhang_jie@hainanu.edu.cn.
⁵ Haikou Marine Geological Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Haikou 571127, PR China. Electronic address: wangshisheng618@163.com.
⁶ Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, School of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, PR China; Haikou Marine Geological Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Haikou 571127, PR China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, PR China. Electronic address: fangmengyang@mail.cgs.gov.cn.
⁷ Institute of Tropical Bamboo, Rattan & Flower, Sanya Research Base, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Sanya, PR China. Electronic address: yanghuai@icbr.ac.cn.
⁸ College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agriculture University, Nanchang 330045, PR China. Electronic address: hualu_jxau@163.com.
⁹ State Key Laboratory of Fruit Biology, School of Horticulture, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, PR China. Electronic address: glintguo@163.com.
¹⁰ Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, School of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, PR China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, PR China. Electronic address: liuwj@hainanu.edu.cn.

PMID: 38281647
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170348

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) could significantly affect the concentration of atmospheric CO₂, which is critical for climate change prediction. Along these lines, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was employed to determine the TECS of Hainan Island (HN) from 2015 to 2050 accurately. Besides, the Future Land-use Simulation model combined with natural and anthropogenic factors was used to forecast the land-use types from 2025 to 2050 in HN by considering different Shared-socioeconomic pathway-Rrepresentative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Finally, the geographical detector explored the influence mechanism concerning the TECS. Under the SSP1-RCP1.9 scenario, the TECS of HN will be gradually increased to 388.10 million tons in 2050, mainly due to the increase in forest areas and the fact that the majority of grassland in the western part of HN is being converted into forest. Under different SSP-RCP scenarios except for SSP1-RCP1.9, HN's TECS is expected to gradually decrease from 2015 to 2050, mainly due to the loss of grassland and forest in coastal low-altitude areas. From the single/pair factor perspective influenced mechanism concerning the TECS, the elevation (DEM) and DEM∩Slope were found to be the dominant single/pair factor under the SSP1-RCP1.9, SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios. The least distance to residential area (LDP) and LDP∩LDR (i.e. LDP and least distance to roads or railways) were found to be the dominant factors under the SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP4-RCP3.4, SSP4-RCP6.0, SSP5-RCP3.4 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. Besides, the pair factors provided a higher determinant power for TECS than a single factor. Given the results of the TECS and the influence mechanism concerning the TECS under different SSP-RCP scenarios, we suggest reasonably planning the transportation network and limiting the disorderly expansion of construction land.

Keywords: Hainan Island, attribution analysis; Land use and cover change; Land-use simulation; Shared-socioeconomic pathway-Rrepresentative concentration pathway scenarios; Terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.