Future phosphorus (P) shortages could seriously affect terrestrial productivity and food security. We investigated the changes in topsoil available P (AP) and total P (TP) in China's forests, grasslands, paddy fields, and upland croplands during the 1980s-2010s based on substantial repeated soil P measurements (63,220 samples in the 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s) and machine learning techniques. Between the 1980s and 2010s, total soil AP stock increased with a small but significant rate of 0.13 kg P ha-1 year-1 , but total soil TP stock declined substantially (4.5 kg P ha-1 year-1 ) in the four ecosystems. We quantified the P budgets of soil-plant systems by harmonizing P fluxes from various sources for this period. Matching trends of soil contents over the decades with P budgets and fluxes, we found that the P-surplus in cultivated soils (especially in upland croplands) might be overestimated due to the great soil TP pool compared to fertilization and the substantial soil P losses through plant uptake and water erosion that offset the P additions. Our findings of P-deficit in China raise the alarm on the sustainability of future biomass production (especially in forests), highlight the urgency of P recycling in croplands, and emphasize the critical role of country-level basic data in guiding sound policies to tackle the global P crises.
Keywords: digital soil mapping; environmental control; phosphorus budget; soil available phosphorus; soil total phosphorus; spatiotemporal change.
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