Adult T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) is highly aggressive with poor prognoses, while hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a curable option. However, no transplant-specific prognostic model for adult T-ALL is available. We identified 301 adult T-ALL patients who received HSCT at our hospital between 2010 and 2022. These patients were randomly assigned at a 7:3 ratio to a derivation group of 210 patients and a validation group of 91 patients. Next, we developed a prognostic risk score system for adult T-ALL with HSCT, which we named COMM, including 4 predictors (central nervous system involvement, Non-CR1 (CR2+ or NR) at HSCT, minimal residual disease (MRD) ≥ 0.01% after first induction therapy, and MRD ≥ 0.01% before HSCT). Patients were categorized into three risk groups, low-risk (0), intermediate-risk (1-4), and high-risk (5-12), and their 3-year overall survival (OS) were 87.5% (95%CI, 78-93%), 65.7% (95%CI, 53-76%) and 20% (95%CI, 10-20%; P < 0.001), respectively. The area under the subject operating characteristic curve for 2-, 3- or 5-year OS in the derivation cohort and in the validation cohort were all greater than 0.75. Based on internal validation, COMM score system proved to be a reliable prognostic model that could discriminate and calibrate well. We expect that the first prognostic model in adults T-ALL after HSCT can provide a reference of prognostic consultation for patients and families, and also contribute to future research to develop risk adapted interventions for high-risk populations.
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.