Lung transplantation lags behind other solid organ transplants in donor lung utilization due, in part, to uncertainty regarding donor quality. We sought to develop an easy-to-use donor risk metric that, unlike existing metrics, accounts for a rich set of donor factors. Our study population consisted of n = 26 549 adult lung transplant recipients abstracted from the United Network for Organ Sharing Standard Transplant Analysis and Research file. We used Cox regression to model graft failure (GF; earliest of death or retransplant) risk based on donor and transplant factors, adjusting for recipient factors. We then derived and validated a Lung Donor Risk Index (LDRI) and developed a pertinent online application (https://shiny.pmacs.upenn.edu/LDRI_Calculator/). We found 12 donor/transplant factors that were independently predictive of GF: age, race, insulin-dependent diabetes, the difference between donor and recipient height, smoking, cocaine use, cytomegalovirus seropositivity, creatinine, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatch, ischemia time, and donation after circulatory death. Validation showed the LDRI to have GF risk discrimination that was reasonable (C = 0.61) and higher than any of its predecessors. The LDRI is intended for use by transplant centers, organ procurement organizations, and regulatory agencies and to benefit patients in decision-making. Unlike its predecessors, the proposed LDRI could gain wide acceptance because of its granularity and similarity to the Kidney Donor Risk Index.
Keywords: deceased-donor; graft failure; lung transplantation; risk prediction.
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