Background and objectives: The aim of this study was to examine the diurnal links between average and changes in average levels of prospectively rated mood, sleep, energy, and stress as predictors of incident headache in a community-based sample.
Methods: This observational study included structured clinical diagnostic assessment of both headache syndromes and mental disorders and electronic diaries that were administered 4 times per day for 2 weeks yielding a total of 4,974 assessments. The chief outcomes were incident morning (am) and later-day (pm) headaches. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to evaluate the average and lagged values of predictors including subjectively rated mood, anxiety, energy, stress, and sleep quality and objectively measured sleep duration and efficiency on incident am and pm headaches.
Results: The sample included 477 participants (61% female), aged 7 through 84 years. After adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates and emotional states, incident am headache was associated with lower average (ß = -0.206*; confidence intervals: -0.397 to -0.017) and a decrease in average sleep quality on the prior day (ß = -0.172*; confidence interval: -0.305, -0.039). Average stress and changes in subjective energy levels on the prior day were associated with incident headaches but with different valence for am (decrease) (ß = -0.145* confidence interval: -0.286, -0.005) and pm (increase) (ß = 0.157*; confidence interval: 0.032, 0.281) headache. Mood and anxiety disorders were not significantly associated with incident headache after controlling for history of a diagnosis of migraine.
Discussion: Both persistent and acute changes in arousal states manifest by subjective sleep quality and energy are salient precursors of incident headaches. Whereas poorer sleep quality and decreased energy on the prior day were associated with incident morning headache, an increase in energy and greater average stress were associated with headache onsets later in the day. Different patterns of predictors of morning and later-day incident headache highlight the role of circadian rhythms in the manifestations of headache. These findings may provide insight into the pathophysiologic processes underlying migraine and inform clinical intervention and prevention. Tracking these systems in real time with mobile technology provides a valuable ancillary tool to traditional clinical assessments.