Predicting potential SARS-CoV-2 spillover and spillback in animals

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly around the world, causing countries to impose lockdowns and efforts to develop vaccines on a global scale. However, human-to-animal and animal-to-human transmission cannot be ignored, as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can spread rapidly in farmed and wild animals. This could create a worrying cycle of SARS-CoV-2 spillover from humans to animals and spillback of new strains back into humans, rendering vaccines ineffective.

Method: This study provides a key indicator of animals that may be potential susceptible hosts for SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus infections by analysing the phylogenetic distance between host angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and the coronavirus spike protein. Crucially, our analysis identifies animals that are at elevated risk from a spillover and spillback incident.

Results: One group of animals has been identified as potentially susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 by harbouring a parasitic coronavirus spike protein similar to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. These animals may serve as amplification hosts in spillover events from zoonotic reservoirs. This group consists of a mixture of animals infected internally and naturally: minks, dogs, cats, tigers. Additionally, no internal or natural infections have been found in masked palm civet.

Conclusion: Tracing interspecies transmission in multi-host environments based solely on in vitro and in vivo examinations of animal susceptibility or serology is a time-consuming task. This approach allows rapid identification of high-risk animals to prioritize research and assessment of the risk of zoonotic disease transmission in the environment. It is a tool to rapidly identify zoonotic species that may cause outbreaks or participate in expansion cycles of coexistence with their hosts. This prevents the spread of coronavirus infections between species, preventing spillover and spillback incidents from occurring.

Keywords: Human-to-animal and animal-to-human transmissions; Infectious disease; Outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; Spillover and spillback.