Does the low carbon transition impact urban resilience? Evidence from China's pilot cities for carbon emission trading

Abstract

The low-carbon transition is a systemic economic and social change that will inevitably have an impact on many areas of the urban system. Has China's ongoing low-carbon transition impacted urban resilience (UR) systems while achieving urban energy saving and carbon emission reduction goals? This paper uses the implementation of the carbon emissions trading pilot policy (CETPP) as a "quasi-natural experiment." It evaluates the impact of the policy on UR using a difference-in-differences model based on the data of prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2020. The study shows that pilot carbon trading policies favor UR, and the market mechanism of carbon emissions has a heterogeneous cause influence on UR. The impact of pilot carbon trading policies on UR varies according to the respective moderating effects of institutional factors, green technology innovation, industrial structure rationalization, and output effects.

Keywords: Carbon emissions trading pilot policies; Low carbon transition; Market mechanism; Urban resilience.