Global, regional, and national burdens of early onset pancreatic cancer in adolescents and adults aged 15-49 years from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019: a cross-sectional study

Abstract

Background: Early-onset pancreatic cancer (EOPC) in younger populations (age ≤50 years) is likely to be a more aggressive phenotype characterized by poor differentiation. The emerging analysis of the global burden of EOPC is limited and outdated.

Aim: To systematically investigate the burden and trend of EOPC based on global populations.

Methods: In this systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, the authors present the number of cases, age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100 000 population, and risk factors for 204 countries and territories. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) for the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of EOPC were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis.

Results: According to the GBD 2019 estimates, there were 36 852 new cases of EOPC and 32 004 related deaths. East Asia had the highest number of cases, with 11 401 incidences and 10 149 deaths. The ASRs were 0.94 per 100 000 individuals for incidence and 0.81 per 100 000 for mortality. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence increased by 46.9%, mortality increased by 44.6%, and DALYs increased by 41.9% globally. In trend analysis, the global incidence (AAPC, 1.26), mortality (AAPC, 1.24), and DALYs (AAPC, 1.25) of EOPC showed an increasing pattern. The ASRs of incidence, mortality, and DALYs of EOPC in Africa, America, and Asia exhibited a continuous upward trend, while the trend in Europe was fluctuating. Asian males exhibited the fastest growth in incidence (AAPC, 2.15) and mortality (AAPC, 2.13), whereas males in the Americas experienced the slowest increase in new cases (AAPC, 0.72) and deaths (AAPC, 0.67). A certain proportion of EOPC DALYs were attributable to known risk factors: tobacco smoking (13.3%), high BMI, 5.6%, and high fasting plasma glucose 3.2%. Integrating the socio-demographic index (SDI), ASRs of incidence and mortality initially increased with rising SDI, reaching a peak in central Europe (1.5 per 100 000 <ASRs <2.0 per 100 000), and decreased with further increase in SDI in 2019.

Conclusions: The findings offer valuable insights into the global distribution and magnitude of the EOPC burden. The burden is increasing at a rapid pace worldwide, particularly in Asia, and is notably high in central and eastern Europe. This highlights the need for additional preventive control efforts targeting high-risk populations.