Coastal evolution and future projections in Conde County, Brazil: A multi-decadal assessment via remote sensing and sea-level rise scenarios

Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos; Gleycielle Rodrigues do Nascimento; Luccas Matheus Torres Freitas; Leonardo Vidal Batista; Bilel Zerouali; Manoranjan Mishra; Richarde Marques da Silva

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169829

Coastal evolution and future projections in Conde County, Brazil: A multi-decadal assessment via remote sensing and sea-level rise scenarios

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Mar 10:915:169829. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169829. Epub 2024 Jan 10.

Authors

Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos¹, Gleycielle Rodrigues do Nascimento², Luccas Matheus Torres Freitas³, Leonardo Vidal Batista³, Bilel Zerouali⁴, Manoranjan Mishra⁵, Richarde Marques da Silva⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil. Electronic address: celso@ct.ufpb.br.
² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil.
³ Department of Computer Systems, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil.
⁴ Vegetal Chemistry-Water-Energy Laboratory, Department of Hydraulic, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Hassiba Benbouali, University of Chlef, B.P. 78C, Ouled Fares 02180, Chlef, Algeria.
⁵ Department of Geography, Fakir Mohan University, Vyasa Vihar, Nuapadhi, Balasore 756089, Odisha, India.
⁶ Department of Geosciences, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Paraíba, Brazil.

PMID: 38211851
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169829

Abstract

Global sea levels, having risen by approximately 20 cm since the mid-19th century, necessitate a critical examination of their impacts on shoreline dynamics. This research evaluates the historical (1985-2022) and future shoreline changes in Conde County, Paraíba State, Brazil, an area of significant touristic interest. Employing Landsat satellite imagery, the study utilized the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and a Kalman filter algorithm for cloud removal, while also assessing land use and land cover changes using data from the MapBiomas Project for 2000, 2010, and 2020. These analyses informed projections of potential inundation under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios: 1, 2, 5, and 10 m. Key findings revealed a negative average coastline change rate of -0.27 m/year from 1985 to 2022, indicative of erosive trends likely accelerated by human activities. Long-term projections for 2032 and 2042 anticipate continued erosion in areas identified as highly vulnerable. The SLR scenario analysis underscores the urgent need for adaptive climate measures; while a 1- or 2-meter SLR presents limited immediate effects, a 5-meter rise could lead to significant inundation across key sectors, including urban and agricultural landscapes. The projected severity of a 10-meter SLR necessitates immediate, comprehensive interventions to safeguard both natural and human systems.

Keywords: Anthropogenic factors; Climate change; Cloud removal algorithm; Coastal erosion; Kalman filtering; Sea-level rise.