Purpose: Outcomes for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) are heterogenous, with overall survival (OS) ranging from months to over 10 years.
Methods: To decipher and predict the molecular and clinical heterogeneity of NDMM, we assembled a series of 1,933 patients with available clinical, genomic, and therapeutic data.
Results: Leveraging a comprehensive catalog of genomic drivers, we identified 12 groups, expanding on previous gene expression-based molecular classifications. To build a model predicting individualized risk in NDMM (IRMMa), we integrated clinical, genomic, and treatment variables. To correct for time-dependent variables, including high-dose melphalan followed by autologous stem-cell transplantation (HDM-ASCT), and maintenance therapy, a multi-state model was designed. The IRMMa model accuracy was significantly higher than all comparator prognostic models, with a c-index for OS of 0.726, compared with International Staging System (ISS; 0.61), revised-ISS (0.572), and R2-ISS (0.625). Integral to model accuracy was 20 genomic features, including 1q21 gain/amp, del 1p, TP53 loss, NSD2 translocations, APOBEC mutational signatures, and copy-number signatures (reflecting the complex structural variant chromothripsis). IRMMa accuracy and superiority compared with other prognostic models were validated on 256 patients enrolled in the GMMG-HD6 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02495922) clinical trial. Individualized patient risks were significantly affected across the 12 genomic groups by different treatment strategies (ie, treatment variance), which was used to identify patients for whom HDM-ASCT is particularly effective versus patients for whom the impact is limited.
Conclusion: Integrating clinical, demographic, genomic, and therapeutic data, to our knowledge, we have developed the first individualized risk-prediction model enabling personally tailored therapeutic decisions for patients with NDMM.