Projecting the response of ecological risk to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Guangyi Deng; Haibo Jiang; Shiying Zhu; Yang Wen; Chunguang He; Xue Wang; Lianxi Sheng; Yue Guo; Yingyue Cao

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169908

Projecting the response of ecological risk to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Mar 1:914:169908. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169908. Epub 2024 Jan 6.

Authors

Guangyi Deng¹, Haibo Jiang², Shiying Zhu³, Yang Wen⁴, Chunguang He³, Xue Wang³, Lianxi Sheng⁵, Yue Guo⁶, Yingyue Cao⁷

Affiliations

¹ State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China. Electronic address: denggy409@nenu.edu.cn.
² State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China. Electronic address: jianghb625@nenu.edu.cn.
³ State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Environmental Materials and Pollution Control, the Education Department of Jilin Province, College of Engineering, Jilin Normal University, Siping 136000, China.
⁵ State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China. Electronic address: shenglx@nenu.edu.cn.
⁶ The Office of Wetland Conservation and Management of Jilin Province, Changchun 130022, China.
⁷ Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.

PMID: 38190905
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169908

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered land use/land cover (LULC), leading to ecosystem service (ES) degradation and further ecological risks. Ecological risks are particularly serious in ecologically fragile regions because trade-offs between economic development and ecological protection are prominent. Thus, ways in which to assess the response of ecological risks to LULC change under each development scenario in ecologically fragile regions remain challenging. In this study, future LUCC and its impact on ESs under four development scenarios in 2040 in western Jilin Province were predicted using a patch-generating land use simulation model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. Ecological risk was assessed based on future LUCC possibilities, and potential ES degradation and potential drivers of ecological risks were explored using a geographic detector. The results showed that the cropland development scenario (CDS) would experience large-scale urbanization and cropland expansion. Carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and water purification (WP) degraded the most under the CDS, and grain yield (GY) and water yield (WY) degraded the most under the ecological protection scenario (EPS). The LUCC probability under the CDS (14.37 %) was the highest, while the LUCC probability under the comprehensive development scenario (CPDS) (8.68 %) was the lowest. The risk of WP degradation was greatest under the CDS, but the risk of soil retention (SR) degradation was greatest under the natural development scenario (NDS), EPS, and CPDS. Ecological risk coverage was the largest (98.04 %), and ecological risks were the highest (0.21) under the CDS, while those under the EPS were the opposite. Distance to roads and population density had a higher impact on ecological risks than other drivers. Further attention should be given to the ecological networks and pattern establishment in urbanized regions. This study will contribute to risk prevention and sustainable urban and agricultural development.

Keywords: Development scenario; Driving factors; Ecological risk; Ecosystem degradation; Landscape evolution.