A prediction model for coronary artery abnormalities in children with Kawasaki disease older than 5 years

Abstract

Objective: Reliably prediction models for coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) in children aged >5 years with Kawasaki disease (KD) are still lacking. This study aimed to develop a nomogram model for predicting CAA at 4 to 8 weeks of illness in children with KD older than 5 years.

Methods: A total of 644 eligible children were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 450) and a validation cohort (n = 194). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was used for optimal predictors selection, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram model based on the selected predictors. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess model performance.

Results: Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, intravenous immunoglobulin resistance, and maximum baseline z-score ≥ 2.5 were identified by LASSO as significant predictors. The model incorporating these variables showed good discrimination and calibration capacities in both training and validation cohorts. The AUC of the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.854 and 0.850, respectively. The DCA confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram model.

Conclusions: A novel nomogram model was established to accurately assess the risk of CAA at 4-8 weeks of onset among KD children older than 5 years, which may aid clinical decision-making.

Keywords: Coronary artery abnormalities; Kawasaki disease; Nomogram; Prediction model.