Construction of a methodology framework to characterize dynamic full-sector land-use carbon emissions embodied in trade

Abstract

The globally massive land-use changes associated with unprecedented urbanization rate are leading to prodigious quantities of carbon emissions. Nonetheless, the dynamics of land-use carbon emissions, particularly driven by supply-chain activities across all relevant industrial sectors, remain largely unexplored, especially in non-agricultural sectors. Here, we constructed a novel methodological framework to quantify full-sector land-use carbon emissions in Shenzhen, China, an international megacity grappling with acute land resource scarcity. Then, we integrated this framework with multiregional input-output analysis to uncover the multi-scale embodied land-use emissions propelled by Shenzhen's supply-chain activities. Our results indicate a marked increase in Shenzhen's embodied carbon emissions, approximately two orders of magnitude greater than its physical emissions, tripling during 2005-2018. Remarkably, non-agriculture sectors contributed 81.3-90.5 % of physical and 46.6-58.4 % of embodied land-use emissions. The land-use changes occurred outside Shenzhen accounted for 6.5-13.3 % of Shenzhen's total embodied land-use emissions. The sectoral analysis revealed a transition from traditional manufacturing (e.g., metallurgy, chemical products, textiles, wood products) in 2010-2015 to high-tech sectors (e.g., electronic equipment and other manufacture) in 2015-2018. This shift was primarily attributed to concurrent industry transfer actions, leading to aggressive changes in land-use emission intensity discrepancies within and outside Shenzhen. This study provides a scientific basis for designing effective strategies to mitigate land-use carbon emissions associated with supply-chain activities.

Keywords: Embodied land-use emissions; Full-sector estimates; Land-use emission intensities; Transboundary carbon emissions.