Objective To compare the prevalence and disease burden of thyroid cancer and their trends between China and the globe from 1990 to 2019.Methods With the global disease burden data in 2019,Joinpoint was used to predict the trends of the disease burden of thyroid cancer in China and the globe from 1990 to 2019,and logarithmic linear model was used to test the predicted trends.The R language was used for predictive analysis and graphic plotting of the disease burden from 2020 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of thyroid cancer in China were lower than those in the globe.The standardized incidence rate in China and the globe showed an increasing trend(with the increases of 102.65% and 40.65%,respectively),while the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend(with the decreases of 7.63% and 4.91%,respectively).Compared with those of the female population,the standardized incidence and mortality rates of the Chinese male population increased significantly from 1990 to 2019(the rates of change in the male population were 48.65% and 214.60%,respectively;and the rates of change in the female population were -39.01% and 60.44%,respectively).China's overall standardized years of life lost(YLL),years lived with disability(YLD),and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates during the 30-year period were lower than the global average.The Chinese and global populations showed the standardized YLL rate decreasing by 16.61% and 6.88% and the standardized DALY rate decreasing by 10.77% and 3.65%,respectively,while the rates of standardized YLD increased by 128.91% and 46.89%,respectively.The magnitude of DALY in China and the world was mainly influenced by YLL.The standardized incidence,mortality,and DALY rates of the Chinese male population were gradually approaching the global levels.From 1990 and 2019,thyroid cancer showed a higher mortality rate in the population with the age ≥ 75 years and a higher incidence rate in the population with the age <75 years.It is projected that from 2020 to 2035,the standardized incidence rates in China and the world will increase by 36.66% and 21.15%,respectively;the standardized mortality rates will decrease by 20.19% and 3.46%,respectively;and the standardized DALY rate is expected to decrease by 7.08% in China and increase by 4.35% in the world.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,China's standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased and had a higher increase than the global level,and the standardized mortality rate decreased,with a slightly higher decrease than the global level.However,the increases in the standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of this disease in China's ≥75 years male population were severe.Although China's disease burden of thyroid cancer showed a decreasing trend in line with the global trend as a whole,the disease burden in the Chinese males was higher than that in the females.Specifically,the disease burden due to premature death was predominant,and the burden in specific populations requires policy attention.
目的 比较1990至2019年中国与全球的甲状腺癌流行和疾病负担情况及其变化趋势。方法 基于2019年全球疾病负担数据,采用Joinpoint分析1990至2019年中国和全球甲状腺癌疾病负担的变化趋势,使用对数线性模型进行趋势检验,运用R语言进行2020至2035年疾病负担的预测分析和图形绘制。结果 1990至2019年,中国人群甲状腺癌标化发病率、标化死亡率均低于全球,中国和全球标化发病率呈上升趋势(中国和全球增幅分别为102.65%和40.65%)、标化死亡率呈下降趋势(降幅分别为7.63%和4.91%)。与女性人群相比,1990至2019年中国男性人群的标化发病率、标化死亡率均明显增长(男性人群变化率分别为48.65%、214.60%;女性人群变化率分别为-39.01%、60.44%)。1990至2019年中国总体标化过早死亡损失寿命年(YLL)率、伤残损失寿命年(YLD)率和伤残调整生命年(DALY)率均低于全球平均水平,中国和全球总体人群的标化YLL率(降幅分别为16.61%、6.88%)和标化DALY率(降幅分别为10.77%、3.65%)较为稳定而略有下降,但标化YLD率(增幅分别为128.91%、46.89%)持续攀升,中国和全球DALY的数值大小主要受YLL的影响。中国男性人群标化发病率、死亡率和DALY率均逐步逼近全球水平。对1990和2019年的年龄分布分析显示,≥75岁人群的甲状腺癌死亡率较高,<75岁人群发病率较高。预计2020至2035年中国和全球的标化发病率均上升(增幅分别为36.66%、21.15%),标化死亡率均下降(降幅分别为20.19%、3.46%),中国标化DALY率下降(降幅为7.08%),而全球则上升(增幅为4.35%)。结论 1990至2019年,我国标化发病率上升且增幅较全球更高,标化死亡率下降且降幅略高于全球,但我国≥75岁男性人群的标化发病率、死亡率均增幅突出;我国甲状腺癌疾病负担虽整体上与全球一致呈下降趋势,但不同于全球,中国人群的疾病负担性别特征表现为男性高于女性。目前,我国甲状腺癌疾病负担依然面临严峻形势。其中,过早死亡所致的疾病负担占主要地位,重点群体的疾病负担需引起政策重视。.
Keywords: age; burden of disease; gender; prevalence; thyroid cancer.