Enhancing subsurface contamination assessment via ensemble prediction of ground electrical property: A Colorado AMD-impacted wetland case study

Abstract

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is recognized as a major environmental challenge in the Western United States, particularly in Colorado, leading to extreme subsurface contamination issue. Given Colorado's arid climate and dependence on groundwater, an accurate assessment of AMD-induced contamination is deemed crucial. While in past, machine learning (ML)-based inversion algorithms were used to reconstruct ground electrical properties (GEP) such as relative dielectric permittivity (RDP) from ground penetrating radar (GPR) data for contamination assessment, their inherent non-linear nature can introduce significant uncertainty and non-uniqueness into the reconstructed models. This is a challenge that traditional ML methods are not explicitly designed to address. In this study, a probabilistic hybrid technique has been introduced that combines the DeepLabv3+ architecture-based deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) with an ensemble prediction-based Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method. Different MC dropout rates (1%, 5%, and 10%) were initially evaluated using 1D and 2D synthetic GPR data for accurate and reliable RDP model prediction. The optimal rate was chosen based on minimal prediction uncertainty and the closest alignment of the mean or median model with the true RDP model. Notably, with the optimal MC dropout rate, prediction accuracy of over 95% for the 1D and 2D cases was achieved. Motivated by these results, the hybrid technique was applied to field GPR data collected over an AMD-impacted wetland near Silverton, Colorado. The field results underscored the hybrid technique's ability to predict an accurate subsurface RDP distribution for estimating the spatial extent of AMD-induced contamination. Notably, this technique not only provides a precise assessment of subsurface contamination but also ensures consistent interpretations of subsurface condition by different environmentalists examining the same GPR data. In conclusion, the hybrid technique presents a promising avenue for future environmental studies in regions affected by AMD or other contaminants that alter the natural distribution of GEP.

Keywords: Acid mine drainage; DCNN; Ensemble prediction; GPR; MC dropout; Uncertainty quantification.