Background and objectives: Irregular sleep may increase the risk of cardiometabolic conditions, but its association with incident dementia is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the association between sleep regularity, that is, the day-to-day consistency in sleep-wake patterns and the risk of incident dementia and related brain MRI endophenotypes.
Methods: We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the relationships between sleep regularity and incident dementia in 88,094 UK Biobank participants. The sleep regularity index (SRI) was calculated as the probability of being in the same state (asleep/awake) at any 2 time points 24 hours apart, averaged over 7 days of accelerometry.
Results: The mean age of the sample was 62 years (SD = 8), 56% were women, and the median SRI was 60 (SD = 10). There were 480 cases of incident dementia over a median 7.2 years of follow-up. Following adjustments for demographic, clinical, and genetic confounders (APOE ε4), there was a nonlinear association between the SRI and dementia hazard (p [global test of spline term] < 0.001) with hazard ratios (HRs) following a U-shape pattern. HRs, relative to the median SRI, were 1.53 (95% CI 1.24-1.89) for participants with SRI at the 5th percentile (SRI = 41) and 1.16 (95% CI 0.89-1.50) for those with SRI at the 95th percentile (SRI = 71). In a subset with brain MRI (n = 15,263), gray matter and hippocampal volume tended to be lowest at the extremes of the SRI.
Discussion: Sleep regularity displayed a U-shaped association with risk of incident dementia. Irregular sleep may represent a novel dementia risk factor.