Background: Patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) often have fewer identifiable traditional risk factors compared to other types of acute coronary syndrome. Therefore, it is necessary to explore more sensitive predictive models different from traditional cardiovascular scoring systems to identify high-risk populations. The retrospective case-control study aimed to investigate the predictive value of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and homocysteine (Hcy) on the occurrence of STEMI.
Methods: A total of 198 patients with first STEMI were continuously selected into the observation group, who received emergency coronary angiography in Hefei Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University from January 2020 to January 2022, and a total of 129 patients with chest pain and chest tightness who received coronary angiography to exclude significant coronary artery disease were selected as the control group in the above hospitals during the same period. Hcy was biochemical index determined by fasting blood sampling within 48 h after admission, while CIMT and carotid plaque was measured using ultrasound. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out independent risk factors including Hcy, CIMT and carotid plaque of STEMI. On the basis of traditional risk factors, Hcy, CIMT and carotid plaque were introduced in order to form different combined diagnosis models. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of single indicator and multi-indicator combined diagnosis were plotted to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the study factors or diagnostic models. Based on those, a Nomogram was constructed to predict STEMI.
Results: Hcy (OR =1.161, 95% CI: 1.084-1.244, P<0.001), CIMT (OR =206.968, 95% CI: 22.375-1,914.468, P<0.001), carotid plaque (OR =2.499, 95% CI: 1.214-5.142, P=0.013) were independent risk factors for STEMI (P<0.01). ROC results suggested that the area under the curve (AUC) of Hcy was 0.729, the optimal cut-off value was 13.525 µmol/L. The AUC of CIMT is 0.763, and the optimal cut-off value is 0.875mm. Combined with the independent predictors including smoking, diabetes, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, Hcy, CIMT, carotid plaque, the AUC of the diagnosis model was 0.892 (95% CI: 0.856-0.928, P<0.001). Based on the above results, a Nomogram for predicting STEMI was constructed with a C-index of 0.892. The results of the H-L fitting test show that χ2=1.5049, df=2, P=0.4712; the calibration curve of the Nomogram is close to the ideal curve, and the internal validation C-index was 0.880. The clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) shows that the "nomogram line" of the model is far from the "All line" and the "None line".
Conclusions: Hcy, CIMT, and carotid artery plaque could be independent risk factors of STEMI. The inclusion of these factors in addition to traditional risk factors can more fully and accurately predict the risk of STEMI. The Nomogram based on the results of this study is feasible and can bring clinical net benefit.
Keywords: Homocysteine (Hcy); acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (acute STEMI); carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT); carotid plaque; nomogram.
2023 Cardiovascular Diagnosis and Therapy. All rights reserved.