Carbon ecological security assessment based on the decoupling relationship between carbon balance pressure and ecological quality in Xuzhou City, China

Abstract

Building a carbon ecological security (CES) framework helps to scientifically evaluate and manage the regional carbon cycle and eco-environment and support regional ecological security patterns. This paper adopted the pressure-state-response-immune (PSRI) model and the carbon balance index method to evaluate the ecological quality and carbon balance pressure. Then, based on the decoupling model and the improved four-quadrant model, the CES framework was constructed to evaluate the changing trend of the CES of Xuzhou City from 2005 to 2020. The results showed that the carbon balance pressure of Xuzhou City showed a pattern of "low-high-low" from east to west, and most areas tended to have a carbon balance and surplus in 2020. The ecological quality showed an overall upward trend during the study period. Protection and restoration drove the response and immune index growth from 2010 to 2020. In the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan stage, the nine districts of Xuzhou City were in a stable decoupling state, and the overall decoupling process was ideal. The CES of districts showed individual differences in the general upward trend. The carbon balance pressure of Gulou and Quanshan Districts was the main factor restricting the districts' CES. Therefore, based on the empirical results, this research proposes relevant suggestions to enhance carbon ecological security to achieve regional green and low-carbon development.

Keywords: Carbon balance pressure; Carbon ecological security; Decoupling model; Ecological quality; Four-quadrant model; PSRI model; Xuzhou City.