Background: Despite the excellent disease-specific survival associated with low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), its diagnosis and management have been linked to patient concerns about cancer recurrence, treatment-related health risks, and mortality. Lack of information regarding long-term health outcomes can perpetuate these concerns. Therefore, we assessed all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a large cohort of individuals diagnosed with low-risk DTC. Methods: From the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-12 cancer registry database (1992-2019), we identified 51,854 individuals (81.8% female) diagnosed with first primary DTC at low risk of recurrence (≤4 cm, localized). We estimated cause-specific cumulative mortality by time since diagnosis, accounting for competing risks. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and CIs were used to compare observed mortality rates in DTC patients with expected rates in the matched U.S. general population, overall and by time since DTC diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment and cause-specific mortality. Results: During follow-up (median = 8.8, range 0-28 years), 3467 (6.7%) deaths were recorded. Thyroid cancer accounted for only 4.3% of deaths (n = 148). The most common causes of death were malignancies (other than thyroid cancer) (n = 1031, 29.7%) and cardiovascular disease (CVD; n = 912, 26.3%). The 20-year cumulative mortality rate from thyroid cancer, malignancies (other than thyroid or nonmelanoma skin cancer), and CVD was 0.6%, 4.6%, and 3.9%, respectively. Lower than expected mortality was observed for all causes excluding thyroid cancer (SMR = 0.69 [CI 0.67-0.71]) and most specific causes, including all malignancies combined (other than thyroid cancer; SMR = 0.80 [CI 0.75-0.85]) and CVD (SMR = 0.64 [CI 0.60-0.69]). However, mortality rates were elevated for specific cancers, including pancreas (SMR = 1.58 [CI 1.18-2.06]), kidney and renal pelvis (SMR = 1.85 [CI 1.10-2.93]), and brain and other nervous system (SMR = 1.62 [CI 0.99-2.51]), and myeloma (SMR = 2.35 [CI 1.46-3.60]) and leukemia (SMR = 1.62 [CI 1.07-2.36]); these associations were stronger ≥10 years after diagnosis. RAI was not associated with risk of cause-specific death, but numbers of events were small and the range of administered activities was likely narrow. Conclusions: Overall, our findings provide reassurance regarding low overall and cause-specific mortality rates in individuals with low-risk DTC. Additional research is necessary to confirm and understand the increased mortality from certain subsequent cancers.
Keywords: mortality; observational study; overdiagnosis; survivorship; thyroid neoplasms.