Assessing and predicting the trend of cardiovascular risk factors in 40-80-year population based on the Ira-PEN program as an integrated service in primary health care

Abstract

Background: In Iran, half of all mortalities and 79% of those induced by noncommunicable diseases are attributed to cardiovascular diseases. In Iran, due to the high rate of noncommunicable diseases, a modified program (PEN) called Ira-PEN was integrated into the primary care program in health centers. The Ira-PEN program is adapted from the comprehensive WHO-PEN program to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases to control the main risk factors of noncommunicable diseases nationally. This study was conducted to investigate the process of service provision to determine the information needs and the necessary interventions in the comprehensive health service centers of Ardabil Province.

Materials and methods: The present descriptive and analytical study was conducted in the Ardabil University of Medical Sciences. It used the data available in the registration system of the Health Network. The research population consisted of all people aged between 40 and 80 who visited the comprehensive health service centers to perform risk assessment of cardiovascular strokes in the province from 2018 to the end of 2021. The collected data were added to Excel. FORCAST function was used to predict the future through a linear regression analysis. To compare the final results, which is actually a reduction in mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, the difference test of two mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases was used in 2018 and 2021. Test of two death proportions was performed through z test and Minitab21 Software.

Results: The prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors was as follows: history of heart attack (0.59%), history of stroke (0.51%), history of diabetes (7.9%), history of high blood pressure (15.7%), and history of prediabetics (12.8%). The probability of suffering from lipid disorder was 26.4% and BMI > 30 was 32.4%. The risk factors of hypertension, abdominal obesity, and smoking showed a decrease in the measurement of disease risk factors during 4 years.

Conclusions: Identification of the common risk factors in the region helps to focus interventions on effective prevention and treatment measures and adopt evidence-based policies in order to reduce these risk factors. Since the investigated risk factors are rooted in inappropriate behaviors and lifestyles, by modifying these behaviors and changing lifestyles, their prevalence can be reduced and reducing these risk factors will lead to a reduction in the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease; Ira-PEN; risk assessment.