Management of the designed risk level of urban drainage system in the future: Evidence from haining city, China

Abstract

The design of urban drainage infrastructure is mainly based on historical conditions. Under global warming, more intense precipitation extremes will pose severe risk to current infrastructure. The evaluation of where and by how much design standards need to change, is urgently needed to help maintain well-functioning drainage systems. In this study, we used climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Modeling (ICM) to simulate urban flooding. According to the latest design standard of urban drainage infrastructure, we assess the risk of future urban flooding, and evaluate the effect and benefit of drainage infrastructure adaptation measures. The results showed that, under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario, a 35% increase in extreme rainfall would be expected. Under a 1-in-30-year precipitation event, the maximum depth would increase by 5.59%, and the withdrawal time would rise by 2.94% in the future period, relative to the baseline level. After the enlargement of drainage infrastructure in local areas, 10% pipe enlargement has a better effect to reduce risk and higher benefits than 5% pipe enlargement. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in enhancing the drainage system and adapting to climate change.

Keywords: CMIP6; Infoworks ICM; Precipitation; Return period; Urban flood risk.