Seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States

Abstract

Background: The surges of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared to follow a repeating pattern of COVID-19 outbreaks regardless of social distancing, mask mandates, and vaccination campaigns.

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States of America (USA), and to delineate the dominant frequencies of the periodic patterns of the disease.

Methods: We characterized periodicity in COVID-19 incidences over the first three full seasonal years (March 2020 to March 2023) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We utilized a spectral analysis approach to find the naturally occurring dominant frequencies of oscillation in the incidence data using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm.

Results: Our study revealed four dominant peaks in the periodogram: the two most dominant peaks show a period of oscillation of 366 days and 146.4 days, while two smaller peaks indicate periods of 183 days and 122 days. The period of 366 days indicates that there is a single COVID-19 outbreak that occurs approximately once every year, which correlates with the dominant outbreak in the early/mid-winter months. The period of 146.4 days indicates approximately 3 peaks per year and matches well with each of the 3 annual outbreaks per year.

Conclusion: Our study revealed the predictable seasonality of COVID-19 outbreaks, which will guide public health preventative efforts to control future outbreaks. However, the methods used in this study cannot predict the amplitudes of the incidences in each outbreak: a multifactorial problem that involves complex environmental, social, and viral strain variables.

Keywords: COVID-19; infectious diseases; periodicity; public health; seasonality.