A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024

William J Sutherland; Craig Bennett; Peter N M Brotherton; Stuart H M Butchart; Holly M Butterworth; Stewart J Clarke; Nafeesa Esmail; Erica Fleishman; Kevin J Gaston; James E Herbert-Read; Alice C Hughes; Jennifer James; Hermanni Kaartokallio; Xavier Le Roux; Fiona A Lickorish; Sarah Newport; James E Palardy; James W Pearce-Higgins; Lloyd S Peck; Nathalie Pettorelli; Richard B Primack; Willow E Primack; Irene R Schloss; Mark D Spalding; Dirk Ten Brink; Eleanor Tew; Anastasiya Timoshyna; Nicolas Tubbs; James E M Watson; Jonathan Wentworth; Jeremy D Wilson; Ann Thornton

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2023.11.001

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024

Trends Ecol Evol. 2024 Jan;39(1):89-100. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.11.001. Epub 2023 Dec 18.

Authors

William J Sutherland¹, Craig Bennett², Peter N M Brotherton³, Stuart H M Butchart⁴, Holly M Butterworth⁵, Stewart J Clarke⁶, Nafeesa Esmail⁷, Erica Fleishman⁸, Kevin J Gaston⁹, James E Herbert-Read¹⁰, Alice C Hughes¹¹, Jennifer James¹², Hermanni Kaartokallio¹³, Xavier Le Roux¹⁴, Fiona A Lickorish¹⁵, Sarah Newport¹⁶, James E Palardy¹⁷, James W Pearce-Higgins¹⁸, Lloyd S Peck¹⁹, Nathalie Pettorelli²⁰, Richard B Primack²¹, Willow E Primack²², Irene R Schloss²³, Mark D Spalding²⁴, Dirk Ten Brink²⁵, Eleanor Tew²⁶, Anastasiya Timoshyna²⁷, Nicolas Tubbs²⁸, James E M Watson²⁹, Jonathan Wentworth³⁰, Jeremy D Wilson³¹, Ann Thornton³²

Affiliations

¹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK. Electronic address: w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk.
² Royal Society of Wildlife Trusts, The Kiln, Waterside, Mather Road, Newark, Nottinghamshire NG24 1WT, UK.
³ Natural England, Quay House, 2 East Station Road, Peterborough PE2 8YY, UK.
⁴ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; Birdlife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
⁵ Natural Resources Wales, Cambria House, 29 Newport Road, Cardiff CF24 0TP, UK.
⁶ National Trust, Heelis, Kemble Drive, Swindon SN2 2NA, UK.
⁷ Wilder Institute, 1300 Zoo Road NE, Calgary, AB T2E 7V6, Canada.
⁸ College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
⁹ Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.
¹⁰ Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
¹¹ School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, China.
¹² The Environment Agency, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5TL, UK.
¹³ Finnish Environment Institute, Agnes Sjobergin Katu 2, 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
¹⁴ Microbial Ecology Centre, Université Lyon 1, INRAE, CNRS, UMR 1418, 69622 Villeurbanne, France.
¹⁵ UK Research and Consultancy Services (RCS) Ltd, Valletts Cottage, Westhope, Hereford HR4 8BU, UK.
¹⁶ UK Research and Innovation, Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon SN2 1EU, UK.
¹⁷ The Pew Charitable Trusts, 901 East Street NW, Washington, DC 20004, USA.
¹⁸ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
¹⁹ British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
²⁰ Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
²¹ Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
²² Scale AI, Seattle, WA, USA.
²³ Instituto Antártico Argentino, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas (CADIC-CONICET), Ushuaia, Argentina; Universidad Nacional de Tierra del Fuego, Ushuaia, Argentina.
²⁴ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; The Nature Conservancy, Department of Physical, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Pian dei Mantellini, Siena 53100, Italy.
²⁵ Wetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands.
²⁶ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK; Forestry England, 620 Bristol Business Park, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1EJ, UK.
²⁷ TRAFFIC, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
²⁸ WWF-Belgium, Boulevard Emile Jacqmainlaan 90, 1000 Brussels, Belgium.
²⁹ School of The Environment, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.
³⁰ Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 14 Tothill Street, Westminster, London SW1H 9NB, UK.
³¹ RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, 2 Lochside View, Edinburgh EH12 9DH, UK.
³² Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.

PMID: 38114339
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.11.001

Abstract

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production.

Keywords: Delphi; biodiversity; global; policymaker; practitioner; scientist.

Publication types

Review

MeSH terms

Biodiversity*
Conservation of Natural Resources
Ecosystem*
Food
Forecasting