Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate employing the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA) score to predict 30-day mortality in an aortic centre in the USA.
Methods: Between January 2010 and June 2021, 689 consecutive patients underwent surgery for acute type A dissection at a single institution. Excluded were patients with missing clinical data (N = 4). The GERAADA risk score was retrospectively calculated via a web-based application. Model discrimination power was calculated with c-statistics from logistic regression and reported as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence intervals. The calibration was measured by calculating the observed versus estimated mortality ratio. The Brier score was used for the overall model evaluation.
Results: Included were 685 patients [mean age 60.6 years (SD: 13.5), 64.8% male] who underwent surgery for acute type A aortic dissection. The 30-day mortality rate was 12.0%. The GERAADA score demonstrated very good discrimination power with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.762 (95% confidence interval 0.703-0.821). The entire cohort's observed versus estimated mortality ratio was 0.543 (0.439-0.648), indicating an overestimation of the model-calculated risk. The Brier score was 0.010, thus revealing the model's acceptable overall performance.
Conclusions: The GERAADA score is a practical and easily accessible tool for reliably estimating the 30-day mortality risk of patients undergoing surgery for acute type A aortic dissection. This model may naturally overestimate risk in patients undergoing surgery in experienced aortic centres.
Keywords: Aortic dissection; Model validation; Risk prediction.
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.