Differential risk for COVID-19 in the first wave of the disease among Spaniards and migrants from different areas of the world living in Spain

Abstract

Introduction and objectives: Little is known regarding the relevance of racial/ethnic background to the risk for COVID-19 infection, particularly in Europe. We evaluated the risk of COVID-19 among migrants from different areas of the world within the context of universal free access to medical care.

Material and methods: We conducted a population-based cohort analysis of the cumulative incidence of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 among adult residents of Alcorcon (Spain) in the first wave of the disease up to April 25, 2020.

Results: The crude cumulative incidence among migrants (n=20,419) was higher than among Spaniards (n=131,599): 8.81 and 6.51 and per 1,000 inhabitants, respectively (p<.001), but differed by region of origin. As per a negative binomial regression adjusted for age and sex, relative risk (RR) for COVID-19 for individuals from Europe, Asia, or North Africa was not significantly different from Spaniards. In contrast, a markedly increased risk was found for people from Sub-Saharan Africa (RR 3.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42-9.41, p=.007), the Caribbean (RR 6.35, 95% CI 3.83-10.55, p<.001), and Latin America (RR 6.92, 95% CI 4.49-10.67, p<.001).

Conclusions: Migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America exhibited increased risk for COVID-19 as compared to Spaniards or migrants from Europe, North Africa, or Asia. Our data suggest that the ethnic background may play a role in risk for COVID-19. Migrants from some areas of the world may merit closer attention for both clinical and epidemiological reasons.

Keywords: COVID-19; Cohort; Cohortes; Epidemiology; Epidemiología; Ethnic minorities; Migrantes; Migrants; Minorías étnicas; Relative risk; Riesgo relativo.