Time series analysis and forecasting of the number of canine rabies confirmed cases in Thailand based on national-level surveillance data

Veerasak Punyapornwithaya; Weerapong Thanapongtharm; Chalita Jainonthee; Pornpiroon Chinsorn; Onpawee Sagarasaeranee; Roderick Salvador; Orapun Arjkumpa

doi:10.3389/fvets.2023.1294049

Time series analysis and forecasting of the number of canine rabies confirmed cases in Thailand based on national-level surveillance data

Front Vet Sci. 2023 Nov 29:10:1294049. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1294049. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Veerasak Punyapornwithaya^{1

2

3}, Weerapong Thanapongtharm⁴, Chalita Jainonthee^{1

2}, Pornpiroon Chinsorn⁵, Onpawee Sagarasaeranee⁵, Roderick Salvador⁶, Orapun Arjkumpa⁷

Affiliations

¹ Research Center for Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
² Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety Centre for Asia Pacific, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
³ Department of Veterinary Biosciences and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
⁴ Department of Livestock Development, Bangkok, Thailand.
⁵ Companion Disease Control Division, Bureau of Disease Control and Veterinary Services, Department of Livestock Development, Bangkok, Thailand.
⁶ College of Veterinary Science and Medicine, Central Luzon State University, Science City of Muñoz, Nueva Ecija, Philippines.
⁷ The 4th Regional Livestock Office, Department of Livestock Development, Khon Kaen, Thailand.

Abstract

Introduction: Rabies, a deadly zoonotic viral disease, accounts for over 50,000 fatalities globally each year. This disease predominantly plagues developing nations, with Thailand being no exception. In the current global landscape, concerted efforts are being mobilized to curb human mortalities attributed to animal-transmitted rabies. For strategic allocation and optimization of resources, sophisticated and accurate forecasting of rabies incidents is imperative. This research aims to determine temporal patterns, and seasonal fluctuations, and project the incidence of canine rabies throughout Thailand, using various time series techniques.

Methods: Monthly total laboratory-confirmed rabies cases data from January 2013 to December 2022 (full dataset) were split into the training dataset (January 2013 to December 2021) and the test dataset (January to December 2022). Time series models including Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR), Error Trend Seasonality (ETS), the Trigonometric Exponential Smoothing State-Space Model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) were used to analyze the training dataset and the full dataset. The forecast values obtained from the time series models applied to the training dataset were compared with the actual values from the test dataset to determine their predictive performance. Furthermore, the forecast projections from January 2023 to December 2025 were generated from models applied to the full dataset.

Results: The findings revealed a total of 4,678 confirmed canine rabies cases during the study duration, with apparent seasonality in the data. Among the models tested with the test dataset, TBATS exhibited superior predictive accuracy, closely trailed by the SARIMA model. Based on the full dataset, TBATS projections suggest an annual average of approximately 285 canine rabies cases for the years 2023 to 2025, translating to a monthly average of 23 cases (range: 18-30). In contrast, SARIMA projections averaged 277 cases annually (range: 208-214).

Discussion: This research offers a new perspective on disease forecasting through advanced time series methodologies. The results should be taken into consideration when planning and conducting rabies surveillance, prevention, and control activities.

Keywords: Thailand; confirmed cases; forecasting; rabies; time series model.

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The authors are grateful for research funding from Chiang Mai University (Grant: R66IN00356).