Lotka-Volterra models for the market penetration of renewable energy

Norbert Brunner; Doris Straßegger

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22704

Lotka-Volterra models for the market penetration of renewable energy

Heliyon. 2023 Nov 23;9(12):e22704. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e22704. eCollection 2023 Dec.

Authors

Norbert Brunner¹, Doris Straßegger¹

Affiliation

¹ Institute of Mathematics, Department of Integrative Biology and Biodiversity Research, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria.

Abstract

We studied trend models for the energy and electricity markets and compared their complexity. Was it associated to the ease of policy interventions to control these markets? Using open data, we applied Lotka-Volterra type models to describe the evolution of the market shares of renewable energy and of electricity from renewable sources and observed that for the latter data more complex models were needed. We then searched for characteristics and anomalies in these models that might indicate immunity to and susceptibility for policy interventions towards reaching carbon neutrality, respectively. However, the evidence linking complexity and receptiveness for policy interventions remained weak.

Keywords: Carbon neutrality; Green electricity; Logit regression; Lotka-volterra differential equation; Renewable energy.