Understanding if the reward is worth the influenza risk: The true cost of showing pigs

Jennifer E Brophy; Janice Park; Andrew S Bowman; Brian E Roe; Jacqueline M Nolting

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106083

Understanding if the reward is worth the influenza risk: The true cost of showing pigs

Prev Vet Med. 2024 Jan:222:106083. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106083. Epub 2023 Nov 30.

Authors

Jennifer E Brophy¹, Janice Park², Andrew S Bowman², Brian E Roe¹, Jacqueline M Nolting³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, 2120 Fyffe Road, Columbus, OH, USA.
² Department of Veterinary Preventive Medicine, The Ohio State University, 1920 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH, USA.
³ Department of Veterinary Preventive Medicine, The Ohio State University, 1920 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: nolting.4@osu.edu.

PMID: 38071873
DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106083

Abstract

Influenza A virus transmission between pigs and humans has been reported periodically worldwide, and spillover events across the animal-human species barrier could lead to the next influenza pandemic. Swine exhibitions serve as a unique interface conducive to zoonotic disease transmission due to extensive commingling of pigs and humans for prolonged periods of time. The majority of zoonotic influenza A virus transmission in the United States has been linked to swine exhibitions, leading some to suggest additional controls for influenza A virus at the swine-human interface. Determining the value of the exhibition swine industry and gauging the financial impacts influenza A virus outbreaks could have on society, helps to inform adoption decisions of mitigation recommendations. This study estimates the total value of the exhibition swine industry in the United States and calculates the predicted costs of the most extreme mitigation strategy, cancelling swine exhibitions to reduce zoonotic influenza A virus transmission. Mixed methods, including a survey, were used to collect data and inform the study model. We estimated that the direct economic impact of the exhibition swine sector in 2018 was $1.2 billion. If pig shows were to be cancelled for one year, the estimated direct economic impact would be $357.1 million. A permanent, > 3-year ban on swine exhibitions would result in a $665 million economic impact, which is a 45% reduction from baseline. The direct economic impact of cancelling the swine show circuit could not be determined, as youth exhibitors may pursue alternative activities that cannot be precisely accounted for. However, the estimated loss to the swine industry justifies seeking enhanced mitigation to prevent disease transmission. Moreover, economic losses secondary to exhibition cancellations may explain hesitancy to participate in active influenza A virus surveillance efforts.

Keywords: Agriculture; Economy; Influenza A; Outbreak; Swine; United States; Virus.

MeSH terms

Animals
Humans
Influenza A virus*
Influenza, Human* / epidemiology
Orthomyxoviridae Infections* / epidemiology
Orthomyxoviridae Infections* / prevention & control
Orthomyxoviridae Infections* / veterinary
Reward
Swine
Swine Diseases* / epidemiology
Swine Diseases* / prevention & control
United States / epidemiology
Zoonoses / prevention & control