Surgery avoidance is an important goal in Crohn's disease (CD) treatment and predicting the risk of subsequent surgery is important to determine adequate therapeutic strength for patients with newly diagnosed CD. Herein, we aimed to construct a prediction model for the risk of subsequent surgery based on disease characteristics at the patients' initial visit. We retrospectively collected disease characteristic data from 93 patients with newly diagnosed CD. A logistic regression model with a brute force method was used to maximize the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) by employing a combination of potential predictors from 14 covariates (16,383). The auROC remained almost constant when one to 12 covariates were considered, reaching a peak of 0.89 at four covariates (small-bowel patency, extensive small-bowel lesions, main lesions, and the number of poor prognostic factors), and it decreased with increasing covariate size. The most significant predictors were small-bowel patency, extensive small-bowel lesions, and age or major lesions. Therefore, this prediction model using covariates may be helpful in determining the likelihood that a patient with newly diagnosed CD will require surgery, which can aid in appropriate treatment selection for high-risk patients.
Keywords: Crohn’s disease; brute force method; newly diagnosed; prediction; surgery.