Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality assessment under climate change scenarios in Nanchang, China

Abstract

Investigating habitat quality under different climate scenarios holds significant importance for sustainable land resource management and ecological conservation. In this study, considering Nanchang as a case study, a coupled patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and system dynamics (SD) model was employed in the simulation and prediction of land usage under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To assess the habitat quality in Nanchang from 2000 to 2020 and in 2030 under three diverse climate scenarios, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to analyze spatial and temporal changes. The findings indicate that the regions of forest land, cultivated land, and grassland in Nanchang City will dramatically decrease by 2030, the construction land will rapidly expand, and the fluctuations in the unutilized land and water area will be minimal. Additionally, the habitat quality declined from 2000 to 2020, and its spatial distributions changed. Zones having a high overall habitat quality were distributed in the mountains, hills, and lake areas, whereas those with relatively low quality were found in cultivated and urban areas. Under three climate scenarios, in 2030, the habitat quality index for Nanchang City will show a decreasing trend, mainly owing to areas with an index of 0.3-0.5 transitioning to <0.3. Considering each scenario, the degree of habitat degradation increased in the order SSP585>SSP245>SSP119. The findings of this study will inform high-quality development and biodiversity conservation in Nanchang City.

Keywords: Habitat quality; Land use change; Nanchang; PLUS model; SSP-RCP scenario; System dynamics model.