Integration of fruit fly and firefly optimization algorithm with support vector regression in estimating daily pan evaporation

Abstract

The purpose of the present study was to predict the pan evaporation values at four stations including Urmia, Makou, Mahabad, and Khoy, located in West Azerbaijan, Iran, using support vector regression (SVR), SVR coupled by fruit fly algorithm (SVR-FOA), and SVR coupled with firefly algorithm (SVR-FFA). Therefore, for the first time, this research has used the combined SVR-FOA to predict pan evaporation. For this purpose, meteorological parameters in the period of 1990-2020 were gathered and then using the Pearson's correlation coefficient, significant inputs for pan evaporation estimation were determined. The correlation evaluation of the parameters showed that the two parameters of wind speed and sunshine hours had the highest correlation with the pan evaporation values, and in addition, these parameters, as input to the models, improved the results and increased the accuracy of the models. The obtained results indicated that at Urmia station, SVR-FFA with the lowest error was the best model. The SVR-FOA also had better performance than the SVR model. Additionally, the result showed that SVR-FOA with the lowest errors had the best capability in pan evaporation estimation at other studied stations. Therefore, it was concluded that FOA with advantages such as simplicity, fewer parameters, easy adjustment, and less calculation can significantly increase the capability of independent SVR models. Hence, based on the overall results, SVR-FOA may be recommended as the most accurate method for pan evaporation estimation.

Keywords: Evaporation; Optimization algorithm; Statistical analysis; Water resource management.