Investigating the CO2 abatement potential of urban residential building from systematic perspective is essential to reach the urban carbon neutrality target. However, previous studies on building CO2 emission trend forecasting were mainly focused on the building operational phase. In this study, a new framework that includes four building stages under a system dynamic model is developed to simulate urban residential building carbon emission changes and the related reduction potentials under three scenarios in Jiangxi Province up to 2060. Results showed that the overall process carbon emission dynamic had already peaked in 2014 under the three scenarios, with a peak value of 38.52 Mt. It then fell to 9.56 Mt in 2060 under the baseline (BAU) scenario. More importantly, seven carbon abatement measures were adopted during four building activities in this study, and the total carbon reduction was not the sum of the carbon reduction potential of the individual measures. Some carbon abatement strategies displayed synergistic effects such as low-carbon electrification where the combination of electrification and clean energy power generation was the largest contributor to reduced carbon emissions during building operation as a comprehensive carbon reduction measure. By contrast, extending a building's lifetime restrained the carbon abatement potential during the demolition stage, and it inhibited the carbon emission reduction by 24.84 Mt. These results highlight the significant need for effective policy interventions for clean production and the need to improve prefabricated building proportions, promote electrification, improve energy efficiency, strengthen recycling practices, and extend building lifetimes to promote decarbonization of urban residential building system development.
Keywords: CO(2) emission peak; Carbon abatement strategies; Forecasting framework; System dynamics model; Urban residential buildings.
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