Multi-scenario reduction pathways and decoupling analysis of China's sectoral carbon emissions

Kaile Zhou; Jingna Yang; Hui Yin; Tao Ding

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.108404

Multi-scenario reduction pathways and decoupling analysis of China's sectoral carbon emissions

iScience. 2023 Nov 8;26(12):108404. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.108404. eCollection 2023 Dec 15.

Authors

Kaile Zhou^{1

2}, Jingna Yang^{1

2}, Hui Yin^{1

3}, Tao Ding^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China.
² Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences for Smart Management of Energy & Environment and Green & Low Carbon Development, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China.
³ Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark.

Abstract

To achieve its goal of carbon emissions peak and neutrality, China requires synergistic efforts across all sectors. In this study, three scenarios-baseline, policy, and green low-carbon-were developed to explore the pathways for China's emissions reduction across sectors from 2020 to 2060, and the timing of decoupling economic growth from CO₂. The results showed that, under these scenarios, China's carbon emissions peak in 2030, 2026, and 2025, with strong decoupling time, lagged one year behind peak attainment. The agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fishing (AFH) and mining and quarrying (MQ) sectors would be the first to achieve a carbon peak. Under all three scenarios, all of the other sectors-with the exception of electricity, gas, and water production and supply (EGW)-will achieve a carbon peak by 2030. Therefore, policymakers should set carbon peak goals based on sector characteristics and ensure energy security in the process of achieving carbon neutrality.

Keywords: Environmental issues; Environmental policy; Environmental science.