Machine learning-based predictor for neurologic outcomes in patients undergoing extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation

Abstract

Background: We investigated the predictors of poor neurological outcomes in extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) patients using machine learning (ML) approaches.

Methods: This study was a retrospective, single-center, observational study that included adult patients who underwent ECPR while hospitalized between January 2010 and December 2020. The primary outcome was neurologic status at hospital discharge as assessed by the Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC) score (scores range from 1 to 5). We trained and tested eight ML algorithms for a binary classification task involving the neurological outcomes of survivors after ECPR.

Results: During the study period, 330 patients were finally enrolled in this analysis; 143 (43.3%) had favorable neurological outcomes (CPC score 1 and 2) but 187 (56.7%) did not. From the eight ML algorithms initially considered, we refined our analysis to focus on the three algorithms, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, random forest, and Stochastic Gradient Boosting, that exhibited the highest accuracy. eXtreme Gradient Boosting models exhibited the highest accuracy among all the machine learning algorithms (accuracy: 0.739, area under the curve: 0.837, Kappa: 0.450, sensitivity: 0.700, specificity: 0.740). Across all three ML models, mean blood pressure emerged as the most influential variable, followed by initial serum lactate, and arrest to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) pump-on-time as important predictors in machine learning models for poor neurological outcomes following successful ECPR.

Conclusions: In conclusion, machine learning methods showcased outstanding predictive accuracy for poor neurological outcomes in patients who underwent ECPR.

Keywords: cerebral performance categories score; extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation; extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; machine learning; prognosis.