Ecological security warning in Central Asia: Integrating ecosystem services protection under SSPs-RCPs scenarios

Jiangyue Li; Xi Chen; Philippe De Maeyer; Tim Van de Voorde; Yaoming Li

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168698

Ecological security warning in Central Asia: Integrating ecosystem services protection under SSPs-RCPs scenarios

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Feb 20:912:168698. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168698. Epub 2023 Nov 29.

Authors

Jiangyue Li¹, Xi Chen², Philippe De Maeyer³, Tim Van de Voorde³, Yaoming Li⁴

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent 9000, Belgium.
² State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China.
³ Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent 9000, Belgium.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China. Electronic address: lym@ms.xjb.ac.cn.

PMID: 38040380
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168698

Abstract

Ecological security patterns (ESPs) are designed to enhance ecosystem structure and functionality while preserving vital ecosystem services (ESs). This study not only integrated the ES trade-offs related to ecological security warning, but also considered the effects of future climate changes and human activities on ESPs. By combining the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ), the dry sedimentation (DS) model, the recreation opportunity map (ROM) and the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model, this study projected provisioning services, regulation services and cultural services in Central Asia (CA) for historical periods (1995-2014) and future scenarios (2021-2099). An ecological security early-warning (source - corridor - barriers) framework was constructed based on the protection of ESs under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The ordered weighted averaging method (OWA) was applied to this framework to identify ecological sources. The Minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR) and circuit theory were used to construct ecological corridors and barriers. Our results revealed that ES hotspot areas will decrease by 11.75 % to 16.42 % in CA under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. Under the ecological warning framework, the ecological source warning area will reach 792 km²-1942 km² and 6591 km²-17,465 km² under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. In particular, in the 2050s under the SSP245 scenario, the number of key ecological corridor warnings will exceed 50 % of the total number of corridors. We found that ecological barrier warnings will mainly be distributed in desert areas with low vegetation coverage in southwestern CA. Building upon the reorganization of ESs within the ESP framework, we propose an ecological early warning strategy referred to as "one axis, two belts, two cores, and three zones". This novel approach aims to enhance our ability to predict and respond to ecological threats and challenges.

Keywords: Central Asia; Circuit theory; Ecological security pattern; Ecosystem services; Trade off.