Aims: We aimed to determine the predictive role of mammographic breast density in addition to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) on subsequent CVD events in women.
Methods and results: This cohort study included 4,268,579 women aged ≥40 years who underwent mammography screening between 2009 and 2010 with follow-up until 2020. Breast density was reported following the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. Primary outcomes included coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, and heart failure. The incremental predictive ability of breast density added to the FRS model was assessed using the ROC and net reclassification index (NRI) among all women and strata based on FRS risk categories (<5% as low-risk, 5%-10% as moderate-risk, and ≥10% as high-risk). In total, 135,475 CVD events were recorded after a median follow-up of 10.9 years. A lower category of breast density was associated with a higher risk of CVD. Compared to the extremely dense breast group, the hazard ratios (95% CI) for CVDs were 1.12 (1.09-1.14), 1.19 (1.17-1.22), and 1.29 (1.26-1.32) in women with heterogeneously dense, scattered fibroglandular densities, and almost entirely fat breast density, respectively. Adding breast density to the FRS showed a slight improvement in AUROC but a modest improvement in NRI; the C-statistic difference was 0.083% (95% CI 0.069-0.096) with a 7.15% (6.85-7.69) increase in NRI, with the strongest improvement observed in the low-risk group.
Conclusions: Mammographic breast density is an independent predictor of incident CVD among women. The addition of mammographic breast density to FRS improves the prediction of CVDs, especially in low-risk individuals.
Keywords: Breast density; Discrimination; Framingham risk score; Mammography screening.
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