The effectiveness of species distribution models in predicting local abundance depends on model grain size

Abstract

The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict local abundance has been often proposed and contested. We tested whether SDMs at different spatiotemporal resolutions may predict the local density of 14 bird species of open/semi-open habitats. SDMs were built at 1 ha and 1 km, and with long-term versus a mix of current and long-term climatic variables. The estimated environmental suitability was used to predict local abundance obtained by means of 275 linear transects. We tested SDM ability to predict abundance for all sampled sites versus occurrence sites, using N-mixture models to account for imperfect detection. Then, we related the R² of N-mixture models to SDM traits. Fine-grain SDMs appeared generally more robust than large-grain ones. Considering the all-transects models, for all species environmental suitability displayed a positive and highly significant effect at all the four combinations of spatial and temporal grains. When focusing only on occurrence transects, at the 1 km grain only one species showed a significant and positive effect. At the 1 ha grain, 62% of species models showed (over both climatic sets) a significant or nearly significant positive effect of environmental suitability on abundance. Grain was the only factor significantly affecting the model's explanatory power: 1 km grain led to lower amounts of variation explained by models. Our work re-opens the debate about predicting abundance using SDM-derived suitability, emphasizing the importance of grains and of spatiotemporal resolution more in general. The incorporation of local variables into SDMs at fine grains is key to predict local abundance. SDMs worked out at really fine grains, approaching the average size of territory or home range of target species, are needed to predict local abundance effectively. This may result from the fact that each single cell may represent a potential territory/home range, and hence a higher suitability over a given area means that more potential territories occur there.

Keywords: MaxEnt; N-mixture models; SDMs; breeding birds; density; distribution; environmental suitability.