Preparing for Mpox Resurgence: Surveillance Lessons From Outbreaks in Toronto, Canada

Abstract

Background: With many global jurisdictions, Toronto, Canada, experienced an mpox outbreak in spring/summer 2022. Cases declined following implementation of a large vaccination campaign. A surge in early 2023 led to speculation that asymptomatic and/or undetected local transmission was occurring in the city.

Methods: Mpox cases and positive laboratory results are reported to Toronto Public Health. Epidemic curves and descriptive risk factor summaries for the 2022 and 2023 outbreaks were generated. First- and second-dose vaccination was monitored. Mpox virus wastewater surveillance and whole genome sequencing were conducted to generate hypotheses about the source of the 2023 resurgence.

Results: An overall 515 cases were reported in spring/summer 2022 and 17 in the 2022-2023 resurgence. Wastewater data correlated with the timing of cases. Whole genome sequencing showed that 2022-2023 cases were distinct from 2022 cases and closer to sequences from another country, suggesting a new importation as a source. At the start of the resurgence, approximately 16% of first-dose vaccine recipients had completed their second dose.

Conclusions: This investigation demonstrates the importance of ongoing surveillance and preparedness for mpox outbreaks. Undetected local transmission was not a likely source of the 2022-2023 resurgence. Ongoing preexposure vaccine promotion remains important to mitigate disease burden.

Keywords: genomics; mpox; outbreak; surveillance; wastewater.