Short-term solar radiation forecasting using machine learning models under different sky conditions: evaluations and comparisons

Abstract

Forecasting short-term solar radiation is crucial for many solar energy applications. Additionally, solar energy has a lower environmental impact than conventional sources like fossil fuels and can be used for investment purposes through the construction of large solar farm facilities. To test, evaluate, and compare various solar radiation models, short-term observations of meteorological, astronomical, computational, and geographical data were collected at two distinct locations from 2012 to 2015. In this study, seven machine learning models were employed: multi-layer perceptron (MLP), feedforward backpropagation algorithm (FFBP), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), linear regression (LR), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), random forest (RF), and Gaussian process regression (GPR) models. These models were used to forecast hourly global solar radiation (GSR) using the aforementioned data as model input. The performance of the selected models' forecast accuracy was thoroughly examined by assessing it for a typical day, for four seasons, and under three sky conditions. The RF model can forecast GSR with satisfactory accuracy, and MLP and GPR models provide better accuracy than LR, FFBP, RBF, and ARIMA models. For example, the R² value range of RF are 0.9621 for Tetuan site and 0.9534 for Tangier site, respectively. Meanwhile, RF, MLP, and GPR models under-forecast few high radiation values on clear days, which may due to the differences in training and testing data ranges and distributions of the sky conditions. Finally, the obtained result of this study indicate that the proposed RF model is a reliable alternative for short-term global solar radiation forecasting due to its high forecast accuracy.

Keywords: Forecasting; Machine learning; Meteorological data; Short-term solar radiation; Sky conditions.