Novel predictive nomograms based on aspartate aminotransferase‑to‑platelet ratio index for hepatocellular carcinoma with post‑operative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization

Abstract

The clinical significance of systemic inflammation assessed with laboratory analysis of blood samples has been validated in a variety of cancers. The present study was conducted to investigate prognostic significance of preoperative aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) for the outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving post-operative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PATACE). A total of 201 patients who underwent PATACE were retrospectively analyzed. A nomogram for HCC was developed using predictors based on multivariate Cox models, and bootstrapping was performed for validation. According to the ROC curve, which was used to divide patients into two cohorts: High APRI group (APRI>1.02) and Low APRI group (APRI≤1.02). In subgroup survival analysis, patients with a relatively low APRI had significantly longer disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) than patients with a relatively high APRI, regardless of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages (BCLC 0/A or BCLC B/C, both P<0.05); while in China liver cancer staging I/II and TNM I/II stage patients, relatively low APRI was associated with improved DFS and OS (both P<0.05). Multivariate Cox models demonstrated that APRI and BCLC stages were independent prognostic factors of DFS and OS (both P<0.05). Nomograms for DFS and OS were constructed, respectively. Calibration curve analysis showed that the standard curve fitted well with the predicted curve. Time-receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the nomogram had high efficiency. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the high clinical value of the nomogram. APRI is an independent prognostic factor of DFS and OS in HCC patients receiving PATACE, and the combination of APRI with the HCC staging system can refine risk stratification to provide a more accurate prognostic assessment for the outcome of patients receiving PATACE.

Keywords: adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization; aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index; hepatocellular carcinoma; nomogram; prognosis.