A nomogram based on ultrasonographic features and clinical indicators for differentiating mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and liver metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on ultrasonographic features and clinical indicators to differentiate mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (MF-ICC) from hepatic metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma.

Materials and methods: A total of 343 patients with pathologically confirmed MF-ICC or metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma were enrolled between October 2018 and July 2022. Patients were randomly assigned to training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Preoperative ultrasound features and clinical indicators were retrieved. Univariate logistic regression analysis was employed to select relevant features. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish a predictive model, which was presented as a nomogram in training sets. The model's performance was assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

Results: The study included 169 patients with MF-ICC and 174 with liver metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma, assigned to training (n=238) and validation (n=105) cohorts. The nomogram incorporated ultrasound features (tumor size, lesion number, echogenicity, tumor necrosis, and rim arterial phase hyperenhancement) and clinical information (serum levels of CEA, CA19-9, CA125). The nomogram demonstrated promising performance in differentiating these two entities in both training and validation sets, with an AUC value of 0.937 (95%CI: 0.907,0.969) and 0.916 (95%CI: 0.863,0.968), respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves confirmed good consistency between predictions and observations. Additionally, decision curve analysis confirmed the nomogram's high clinical practicability.

Conclusion: The nomogram based on ultrasound features and clinical indicators demonstrated good discrimination performance in differentiating MF-ICC from metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma, which may enhance clinical decision-making process in managing these challenging diagnostic scenarios.

Keywords: contrast-enhanced ultrasound; mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma; nomogram; predictive model.