Background: Whether the degree of inflammation (and its resolution) and neurodegeneration after treatment initiation predicts disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains unclear.
Objectives: To assess the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived brain and lesion volume (LV) changes in years 1 and 2 of treatment for disease progression.
Methods: Patients receiving early interferon beta-1a treatment in REFLEX/REFLEXION (N = 262) were included. Predictive regression models included new/enlarging LV (positive activity), disappearing/shrinking LV (negative activity), and global/central atrophy during years 1 and 2.
Results: Faster global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy and positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 related to an increased probability and faster conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). Negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2 were predictive of confirmed disability progression (9-Hole Peg Test). Positive lesion activity in year 2 was predictive of faster global atrophy, while positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 was predictive of faster central atrophy.
Conclusions: A higher degree of global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy in year 1 was predictive of CDMS. Positive lesion activity in any year was related to CDMS and neurodegeneration. Disability was related to negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2.
Keywords: Brain atrophy; disease progression; early multiple sclerosis; prognostic factors; pseudo-atrophy; white matter lesions.