Carbon conundrums: Geopolitical clashes and market mayhem in the race for sustainability

Abstract

This research presents an in-depth investigation into the dynamic correlation between geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets utilizing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) technique. The analysis focuses on the interconnectedness between the Geopolitical Risk Index Daily (GPRD) and vital carbon pricing instruments, specifically the Intercontinental Exchange Endex European Union Allowance (ECEFDC), KraneShares California Carbon Allowance Strat ETF (KCCAK), Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange China Emission Allowances Online Transactions (SAXCEA), and S&P Global Ex-Japan LargeMidCap Carbon Efficient Index (SPGJ). The daily fluctuations were traced from May 2021 to July 2023. The analysis is divided into short- and long-term connectedness, with particular emphasis on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the GPRD's spillover on carbon markets. The short-term connectedness (1-5 days) between GPRD and ECEFDC shows variability, fluctuating between 10% and 40%. Conversely, long-term connectedness exhibited a significant increase during the conflict, peaking at approximately 34% by mid-2022. The analysis of the Total Dynamic Connectedness (TCI) between the GPRD and the KCCAK indicates comparable magnitudes, although with minor initial discrepancies. The short-term connectedness of GPRD and KCCAK decreases from its peak of approximately 10% to approximately 1%. Conversely, long-term connectedness varies between approximately 32% and 2% from May 2022 onwards. The long-term connectedness between GPRD and SAXCEA revealed variable patterns, peaking at around 18% at the beginning of the sample period and rapidly reducing to around 1% within two months. The analysis of the connectedness between GPRD and the SPG) identifies intense fluctuations in both TCI and long-term connectedness. After an initial increase and decrease, these patterns rebound and experience another increase. This research provides significant insights into the complex dynamics of geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on carbon market behavior.

Keywords: Carbon; Conflict; Connectedness; Geopolitical; Markets; TVP-VAR.