Background: Low cardiorespiratory fitness is an established risk predictor for chronic non-communicable diseases. We aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of fitness level on the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE, the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or all-cause death), in a contemporary cohort of middle-aged subjects without cardiovascular disease.
Methods: Retrospective analysis of patients aged 40-60 years without a history of cardiovascular disease. Degree of fitness was determined according to a graded, maximal treadmill exercise stress testing (EST) time achieved, classified into age- and sex-specific quintiles (Q), and categorized as low (Q1), moderate (Q2-Q4) or high (Q5) fitness groups. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to assess the association of fitness level with the risk of MACE.
Results: A total of 6836 patients were included, of which 44.5% were women, and the mean age was 52 years. Overall, 289 MACE events occurred during a median follow-up of 7 years. Level of fitness was inversely associated with the presence of cardiovascular risk factors. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for MACE was 1.65 (1.12-2.44) and 2.17 (1.40-3.38) in those at moderate and low fitness levels, compared to the high-fitness group (reference), respectively. For each decrease of one metabolic equivalent (MET) unit achieved at peak exercise, the relative risk for MACE increased by 18%. The association between low fitness and MACE was not modified by other risk factors (P-for-interaction non-significant).
Conclusions: Low fitness level, as captured by a maximal treadmill EST, is an independent risk predictor for MACE among middle-age individuals without known cardiovascular disease. The association of low fitness with high burden of cardiometabolic risk factors highlight the importance of lifestyle intervention in this patient population.
Keywords: cardiovascular disease; exercise stress testing; fitness; outcome; prognosis.