Value of HAVOC and Brown ESUS-AF scores for atrial fibrillation on implantable cardiac monitors after embolic stroke of undetermined source

Claire Grygorowicz; Karim Benali; Guillaume Serzian; Basile Mouhat; Gauthier Duloquin; Thibaut Pommier; Romain Didier; Gabriel Laurent; Yannick Béjot; Baptiste Maille; Fabrice Vuillier; Marc Badoz; Charles Guenancia

doi:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2023.107451

Value of HAVOC and Brown ESUS-AF scores for atrial fibrillation on implantable cardiac monitors after embolic stroke of undetermined source

J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2024 Jan;33(1):107451. doi: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2023.107451. Epub 2023 Nov 22.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Cardiology Department, University Hospital, Dijon, France.
² Cardiology Department, University Hospital, Saint-Etienne, France.
³ Cardiology Department, University Hospital, Besançon, France.
⁴ PEC2 EA7460, University of Burgundy and Franche-Comté, Dijon, France; Neurology Department, University Hospital, Dijon, France.
⁵ Cardiology Department, University Hospital, Dijon, France; PEC2 EA7460, University of Burgundy and Franche-Comté, Dijon, France.
⁶ Cardiology Department, University Hospital, Marseille, France.
⁷ Neurology Department, University Hospital, Besançon, France.
⁸ Cardiology Department, University Hospital, Dijon, France; PEC2 EA7460, University of Burgundy and Franche-Comté, Dijon, France. Electronic address: charles.guenancia@chu-dijon.fr.

PMID: 37995501
DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2023.107451

Abstract

Objectives: Up to 20 % of ischemic strokes are associated with overt atrial fibrillation (AF). Furthermore, silent AF was detected by an implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) in 1 in 3 cryptogenic strokes in the CRYSTAL AF study. An ESC position paper has suggested a HAVOC score ≥ 4 or a Brown ESUS-AF score ≥ 2 as criteria for ICM implantation after cryptogenic stroke, but neither of these criteria has been developed or validated in ICM populations. We assessed the performance of HAVOC and Brown ESUS-AF scores in a cohort of ICM patients implanted after embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS).

Methods: All patients implanted with an ICM for ESUS between February 2016 and February 2022 at two French University Hospitals were retrospectively included. Demographic data, cardiovascular risk factors, and clinical and biological data were collected after a review of electronic medical records. HAVOC and Brown ESUS-AF scores were calculated for all patients.

Findings: Among the 384 patients included, 106 (27 %) developed AF during a mean follow-up of 33 months. The scores performances for predicting AF during follow-up were: HAVOC= AUC: 68.5 %, C-Index: 0.662, and Brown ESUS-AF=AUC: 72.9 %, C-index 0.712. Compared with the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, only the Brown ESUS-AF score showed significant improvement in NRI/IDI. Furthermore, classifying patients according to the suggested HAVOC and Brown ESUS-AF thresholds, only 24 % and 31 % of the cohort, respectively, would have received an ICM, and 58 (55 %) and 47 (44 %) of the AF patients, respectively, would not have been implanted with an ICM.

Conclusion: HAVOC and Brown ESUS-AF scores showed close and moderate performance in predicting AF on ICM after cryptogenic stroke, with a significant lack of sensitivity. Specific risk scores should be developed and validated in large ICM cohorts.

Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Implantable cardiac monitor; Risk score; Stroke.

Publication types

Review

MeSH terms

Atrial Fibrillation* / complications
Atrial Fibrillation* / diagnosis
Embolic Stroke* / complications
Humans
Ischemic Stroke* / complications
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Stroke* / diagnosis
Stroke* / etiology
Stroke* / therapy