Can China reach the CO2 peak by 2030? A forecast perspective

Abstract

With the continuous emission of greenhouse gases, climate issues such as global warming have attracted widespread attention. As the largest CO₂ emitter, China proposes the target of reaching the CO₂ emissions peak by 2030 at the 75th United Nations General Assembly. To determine whether China can realize the goal, we construct an assessment system consisting of a new discrete grey prediction model on the basis of a rolling mechanism and an improved IPCC method. First, the new grey prediction model is used to predict the CO₂ emissions and GDP from 2021 to 2030, and then, the enhanced IPCC method is used to obtain the carbon intensity from 2021 to 2030. In line with the direct judgment based on CO₂ emissions and the indirect judgment based on the comparison between the AADR of carbon intensity and the AAIR of GDP, we find that China faces great challenges and difficulties in achieving its carbon peaking target by 2030. Finally, based on the forecast data and China's current situation, some policy recommendations are put forward to accelerate China's CO₂ peak goal.

Keywords: CO2 emission peak prediction; Grey prediction model; IPCC; Rolling mechanism.