Background: The hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) risk- sudden cardiac death (SCD) model provides a convenient tool for determining the risk of SCD in patients with HCM even though some patients with low-risk scores still remain at risk of SCD. Hence, the aim of our study was to assess the performance of HCM Risk-SCD in a large series of consecutive patients with HCM who had been followed up in a tertiary center.
Methods: The study population consisted of 389 consecutive HCM patients who had been followed up between 2004 and 2021. Demographic and clinical characteristics, estimated 5-year risk using the HCM Risk-SCD model, were compiled, and survival data were collected during follow-up. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to their long-term survival, and HCM risk-SCD scores of these two groups were compared.
Results: The long-term mortality was observed in 47 patients out of 389 patients in the during a mean follow-up of 55.5 ± 12.7 months. The mean HCM Risk-SCD score of surviving patients was significantly lower than that of non-survivors (1.8% vs. 3.0%, p < .001). The HCM Risk-SCD score was above 6% in nine (2.6%) survivors and nine (19.1%) non-survivors (p < .001). The ROC curve based on the HCM Risk-SCD score had 61% sensitivity and 61% specificity for risk threshold of for 2.0%, 38% sensitivity and 99% specificity a threshold of ≥4%, 17% sensitivity, and 99% specificity for a threshold of ≥6%.
Conclusion: A new risk algorithm with higher sensitivity is needed, although the HCM risk-SCD model is still quite useful in identifying patients at a high risk for SCD.
Keywords: HCM risk-SCD; ICD; hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; sudden cardiac death.
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