Longitudinal Transitions Between Use of Combustible, Noncombustible, and Multiple Cannabis Products From Adolescence to Young Adulthood and Intersections With Nicotine Use

Abstract

Understanding transitions across use of different types of cannabis products and multiple cannabis products and how they intersect with nicotine use in young people can inform etiology and prevention. In this study, we examined transitions across use of combustible and noncombustible forms of cannabis and multiple types of cannabis from adolescence to young adulthood and the role of nicotine use in transitions. In a Southern California longitudinal cohort study (n = 3,298; baseline mean age = 16.1 (standard deviation, 0.4) years) with 9 semiannual survey waves (2015-2021), we used Markov multistate transition modeling to estimate short-term (2-wave) and long-term (9-wave) probabilities of transition across 5 cannabis use states: never use of any product, prior use with no past-6-month (P6M) use of any product, and P6M use of exclusively noncombustible products, exclusively combustible products, and multiple (noncombustible + combustible) products. Sizable transition probabilities from prior and exclusive P6M noncombustible or combustible cannabis use to P6M poly-cannabis-product use were observed in short-term (10.7%-38.9%) and long-term (43.4%-43.8%) analyses. P6M nicotine use increased risk of transitioning from never and prior use to exclusive P6M noncombustible and combustible cannabis use. Cannabis use in any form, even temporary use, during midadolescence may often be followed by poly-cannabis-product use. Nicotine use may amplify the probability of future cannabis use onset or recurrence.

Keywords: Markov multistate modeling; adolescent health; cannabis; cannabis-use transitions; marijuana; nicotine use.