Heat exposure assessment based on high-resolution spatio-temporal data of population dynamics and temperature variations

Abstract

Urban heat waves pose a significant risk to the health and safety of city dwellers, with urbanization potentially amplifying the health impact of extreme heat. Accurate assessments of population heat exposure hinge on the interplay between temperature, population spatial dynamics, and the epidemiological effects of temperature on health. Yet, many past studies have over-simplified the matter by assuming static populations, leading to substantial inaccuracies in heat exposure assessments. To address these issues, this study integrates dynamic population data, fluctuating temperature, and the exposure-response relationship between temperature and health to construct an advanced heat exposure assessment framework predicated on a population dynamic model. We analyzed urban heat island characteristics, population dynamics, and heat exposure during heat wave conditions in Beijing, a major city in China. Our findings highlight significant intra-day population movement between urban and suburban areas during heat wave conditions, with spatial population flow patterns showing clear scale-dependent characteristics. These population flow dynamics intensify heat exposure levels, and the disparity between dynamic population-weighted temperature and average temperature is most pronounced at night. Our research provides a more comprehensive understanding of real urban population heat exposure levels and can furnish city administrators with more scientifically rigorous evidence.

Keywords: Dynamic population; Exposure risk; Heat wave; Urbanization.